Monday, January 4, 2010

Kady O'Malley, telling the story the way it is

I would take a moment to applaud the CBC's Kady O'Malley and the marvelous work that she has been doing for the Liberal Party of Canada. Just when we thought that Canadians were losing interest in the prorogation story, in swoops Wonder Woman with "PROROGUEWATCH 2010", where she geniously takes bad news and turns it into wonderful Liberal news! People may either click to read her version, or you may read my interpretation of excellence in interpretive journalism. Since Kady's mind operates on a wave length above you mere silly mortals, you may require me to translate for you. Most Canadians are too stupid to think for themselves, but who needs to think when you have scholars like Kady and I to think for you.


As it turns out, recent polling has indicated that half of Canadians don't care that Parliament was prorogued for the Olympics, but that wasn't going to discourage Kady! Considering that at best 40% of Canadians supported the Tories, and 50% don't care about this story, that should be a concern to us Liberals who are trying to incite public anger over something Liberals are frustrated about. Since 25% of Tories do not support prorogation, and 25% of Tories are 10% of the total population, then 20% of the people who don't care about prorogation voted for the opposition, meaning 1/3 of opposition voters don't care about this opposition induced anger.

But, with the diligence of a Kady O'Malley bearing down on the truthiness of reality, we are enlightened with a far more accurate and reliable mathematical analysis. This is like magic mixed with journalistic integrity. She used her resourcefulness to track down the full data and shine a light of brilliant mathematical analysis to clearly spell out how this bad news story can be spun into a good news story.

What needs to boldly underlined in bright flashing letters is that the poll was taken before Christmas and asked about what they thought about what might happen. But now that it has happened, all the probability proportions change, the data should be completely different. Generally when people say that they don't care if something happens, what they are really trying to say is that they will be really upset once it happens. And it takes a wise soothsayer like Kady to shine the light of truthiness on the dozens and dozens of CBC fans.

Until we get the new polls that should be radically different now that Ralph Goodale has had a chance to be pissed off and Libby Davies has been boldly battling for hearts and minds; but in the meantime here is some brilliant mathematical analysis of the irrelevant poll numbers to convince you that this is good news for the Liberals. The margin of error is 3.1 percent, but we will completely ignore the inconvenient truth that error rates increase substantially when you break down subsets of data. That would not help sell the story, so it does not exist.

Of the half of people who have an opinion, any opinion, on prorogation more were unhappy than happy. That's fantastic, 34% of Canadians are unhappy. Sure that means 65% either don't care or support it, but no no no, focus on the fact that 60% of 50% are possibly furious, and what that spells is trouble for the Conservative Party! Oh yeah!

It gets even better, the cubed root of the slope of the arctangent opposition supporters suggests that when you subtract the linear sum of the 4th exponent of pie more Liberal voters are against prorogation than the 1/3 who don't care. Furthermore, half of a third of all former Reformers multiplied by the cubed root of the real denominator of sigma is just 3% higher than an eighth of 80% of Bloc voters who were polled on the third day divided by 15.

Finally, when you divide the sum of pie to the exponent 3 by 10 times the square of people who supported the last prorogation, than 25% of the fourth degree of the interpolation of the forecasted trend line in the third order polynomial of the 4th dimension proves that this less popular.

To make a long story short, it doesn't matter that most Canadians don't give a shit, because 80% of the people who supported the Coalition with Stephane Dion as its leader a year ago are slightly agitated that we are paused for a month to host an international event. Now that we have established the plurality of O'Malley's brilliant mathematical analysis, the only conclusion left is that the Prime Minister is in big trouble! That is speculative, but you can't argue with math. It certainly indicates that there is at least a small probability that people might eventually be upset, and we have to assume that such a grass roots movement will happen because Kady wants it and her brain power can melt mountains.

What all this means is that people are going to become more angry about something they originally didn't care about, because Libloggers are circulating e-petitions. That's right, the thoughtful exuberance of the far left are going to create a groundswell of anger that will usher in Coalition 1.5 on an issue that most Canadians could not be bothered with.

I can't hardly wait!


  1. Oh, Marxie, you're the best on the Web. You remind me of far too many of my profs at dear old McGill, except that your're a lot smarter. :P

  2. Another Anon says:

    Holy archaic math term Batman!

    When I think of Kady, it's of asking my wife to kick her in the ass for me while I hum the tune of Nothing from Nothing equals Nothing.
    Crazy goddamned Irish.

  3. When I am pulling random math terms out of my ass, I will thank you not to fact check. Just trust everything I say as being fact, and we will got along much better that way!

  4. Sorry, I forgot you are more equal than me.
    Still seeing images of that little leprechaun running around singing Zombie by that band who sat on a couch.

    Was d'Arctangent one of the Three Musketeers?